NOAA, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has revised the number of named storms to between 7 and 12, and that maybe 2 of those named storms could be major, with winds greater than 110 mph.
An average season can see up to 12 named storms.
Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, says overall atmospheric conditions just don’t favor a lot of storm development this year. It led NOAA to update its forecast.
“There’s some below average temperatures across the tropical Atlantic, which are exceptionally cool, relative to the remainder of the global tropics,” says Feltgen. “And we still believe there’s an El Nino forming, and that’s likely to really show itself as we get deeper into August, and continue on into October.”
Feltgen says hurricane preparations should not be based on a seasonal outlook, as Houstonians discovered in 1983 when just four storms were predicted.
“If you didn’t make your preparation plans that was a big mistake, because the first storm out of the gate was a major hurricane named Alicia, that went into the Houston area in late August,” Feltgen says.
To date, the Atlantic Basin has produced three tropical depressions, two of which where able to intensify to hurricane status: Arthur and Bertha. Arthur made two landfalls in North Carolina and Nova Scotia on July 4th, while Bertha landed in the Domician Republic on July 31st.
Hurricane season runs through November 30.