Old Forge Road in Chanceford Township, York County is seen here on July 21, 2020-- nearly two years after flash floods carried away part of the road. Climate change is contributing to stronger storms with heavier rainfall, which are challenging people and communities across Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
Rachel McDevitt / StateImpact Pennsylvania
State climate report predicts nearly six-degree temperature rise, more heat waves and intense storms by 2050
Rachel McDevitt reports on energy, the environment, and climate change for StateImpact Pennsylvania at WITF.
Rachel covers Pennsylvania state government’s policy on climate change, its effects on people, and lawmakers’ approach to the industries that generate many of Pennsylvania’s greenhouse gas emissions. Her work through the collaborative Climate Solutions puts special focus on communities and individuals working to address the effects of climate disruption.
Her stories have aired nationally on the NPR shows Morning Edition, All Things Considered, Weekend Edition, and Science Friday.
Rachel joined WITF in 2014 as a Radio Pennsylvania reporter before becoming the local host of All Things Considered in 2017. The western Pennsylvania native started her journalism career with the CBS affiliate in Bridgeport, West Virginia. Rachel holds a degree in Communications and Spanish from Temple University.
Rachel McDevitt / StateImpact Pennsylvania
Old Forge Road in Chanceford Township, York County is seen here on July 21, 2020-- nearly two years after flash floods carried away part of the road. Climate change is contributing to stronger storms with heavier rainfall, which are challenging people and communities across Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
Pennsylvania could be nearly six degrees hotter on average by 2050, while seeing more frequent heatwaves and intense rain, according to the state’s latest Climate Impacts Assessment.
The report estimates the state’s average temperature will continue to rise up to 5.9 degrees higher on average by midcentury. That’s half a degree hotter than expected in the 2015 report.
The projections also show more frequent and intense storms and heat waves. The state could see more than a month’s worth of days 90 degrees or higher through the year, up from 5 days during a baseline period.
Total precipitation could increase by 8 percent, falling less frequently but in heavier rain events. Droughts are also expected to become more common.
“I’d say the big difference between the last report and this one is we’ve actually experienced the impact of some of that weather now,” said Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Patrick McDonnell, referring to storms in 2018 that caused severe flash flooding across the state.
The report uses a worst-case scenario climate model, with no assumed solutions, to make its projections. Increases are compared to a baseline period measured from 1971 to 2000.
McDonnell said by using that model, it gives the state an opportunity to have a meaningful impact on the projected outcomes by pursuing greenhouse gas reduction policies.
Conservation and Natural Resources Secretary Cindy Adams Dunn said the new assessment better explains the disproportionate impacts that environmental justice communities face.
“And in that lies part of the solution to engaging the public more deeply and having people understand impacts and also engage people in the solutions,” Dunn said.
Environmental justice areas have a high percentage of minority or low-income residents. They are nearly twice as likely as the state average to see days over 90 degrees.
Environmental advocates said the report paints a dire picture of what Pennsylvania faces without strong climate action.
“Higher temperatures, more frequent heavy rains, flooding, and other effects will harm important industries such as agriculture and tourism, but the risks to public health are even more dire,” said Rob Altenburg, PennFuture’s Senior Director for Energy and Climate. “The public should be shocked by these numbers and urged to call for immediate climate action from their elected officials.”
Gov. Tom Wolf has set emission reduction goals of 26 percent by 2025 and 80 percent by 2050, compared to 2005 levels. He’s directed the DEP to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) through regulation; the cap-and-trade program with eleven northeastern and mid-Atlantic states targets emissions from power plants.
The state legislature has neglected to take significant action on climate change in the last decade. Republican leaders have staunchly opposed Wolf’s effort to join RGGI, which they say will hurt coal communities and the state’s economy more broadly.
Pennsylvania is the fifth-largest carbon dioxide emitter in the country, according to 2017 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
StateImpact Pennsylvania is a collaboration among WITF, WHYY, and the Allegheny Front. Reporters Reid Frazier, Rachel McDevitt and Susan Phillips cover the commonwealth’s energy economy. Read their reports on this site, and hear them on public radio stations across Pennsylvania.
Climate Solutions, a collaboration of news organizations, educational institutions and a theater company, uses engagement, education and storytelling to help central Pennsylvanians toward climate change literacy, resilience and adaptation. Our work will amplify how people are finding solutions to the challenges presented by a warming world.