{"id":5682,"date":"2012-02-09T16:19:21","date_gmt":"2012-02-09T22:19:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/?p=5682"},"modified":"2012-02-12T19:27:09","modified_gmt":"2012-02-13T01:27:09","slug":"mark-your-calendars-for-la-ninas-farewell-party","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/02\/09\/mark-your-calendars-for-la-ninas-farewell-party\/","title":{"rendered":"Mark Your Calendars For La Ni\u00f1a&#8217;s Farewell Party"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_5683\"  class=\"wp-caption module image right\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"A dock sits on the dried up bed of the Pedernales River in Travis County, Texas. \" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/edited_2012_02_07_Spicewood_Silvercreek028.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5683\" title=\"edited_2012_02_07_Spicewood_Silvercreek028\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/edited_2012_02_07_Spicewood_Silvercreek028-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/edited_2012_02_07_Spicewood_Silvercreek028-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/edited_2012_02_07_Spicewood_Silvercreek028-620x413.jpg 620w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/edited_2012_02_07_Spicewood_Silvercreek028-220x146.jpg 220w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Photo by Jeff Heimsath\/KUT News<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">A dock sits on the dried up bed of the Pedernales River in Travis County, Texas.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Stop me if you&#8217;ve heard this question before: <em>When will the drought end?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s truly too soon to say, but there are some indicators that one of the main culprits, La Ni\u00f1a, is going to be leaving us soon.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/tag\/la-nina\/\">What is La Ni\u00f1a?<\/a> It&#8217;s\u00a0a weather pattern where the surface temperatures are cooler in the Pacific, which creates\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2011\/12\/09\/a-dryer-hotter-than-normal-winter-on-the-way-for-texas\/\">drier, warmer weather in the southern U.S<\/a>. (You may also know her counterpart, El Ni\u00f1o, which generally has the opposite effect.) La Ni\u00f1a\u00a0sticks around for a year, sometimes longer, and tends to return once every few years. (The last La Ni\u00f1a\u00a0was in 2007, but it was a much lighter one.)<\/p>\n<p>The<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.html\"> National Weather Service says today<\/a> that a &#8220;majority of models predict La Ni\u00f1a to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring 2012.&#8221; This jibes with <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/01\/05\/she-just-wont-leave-la-nina-drought-will-stay-until-spring\/\">previous forecasts<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But there&#8217;s a catch.<!--more--><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-content alignleft\"><h4 class=\"related-header\">Related<\/h4><div class=\"links\"><h5>Posts<\/h5><ul><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/01\/31\/when-wells-run-dry-spicewood-beach-is-out-of-water\/\">When Wells Run Dry: Spicewood Beach, Texas is Out of\u00a0Water<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/02\/02\/the-countdown-continues-5-percent-of-texas-is-now-drought-free\/\">The Countdown Continues: 5 Percent of Texas is Now Drought-Free<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/02\/07\/texas-winter-defies-expectations-eases-drought\/\">Texas Winter Defies Expectations, Eases Drought<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/02\/09\/living-with-drought-and-thirst-examples-for-texas-to-follow\/\">Living with Drought and Thirst: Examples for Texas to Follow<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"topics\"><h5>Topics<\/h5><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/08\/WaterinTexas1-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/topic\/water-in-texas\/\">Your Guide to Water Issues In\u00a0Texas<\/a><\/p><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/11\/119835727-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/topic\/drought\/\">Everything You Need to Know About the Texas Drought<\/a><\/p><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/10\/120001038-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/topic\/la-nina\/\">What is La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a?<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<p>The<a href=\"http:\/\/www.srh.noaa.gov\/ewx\/\"> National Weather Service <\/a>says that they\u00a0&#8220;expect La Ni\u00f1a impacts to continue even as the episode weakens.&#8221; They say that during the next few months, it&#8217;s likely to be drier-than-average in the south. Victor Murphy is with\u00a0the National Weather Service at their Southern Region Headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas. He says that it&#8217;s unfortunate that La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a is taking her time, because the longer it takes her to leave, the less rain we get. &#8220;I would say for the springtime, which is our main time of year for getting rainfall across Texas, we&#8217;re more likely than not to see below normal\u00a0precipitation,&#8221; he told\u00a0Autumn Caviness of KUT News, StateImpact Texas&#8217; reporting partner.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/02\/07\/texas-winter-defies-expectations-eases-drought\/\">forecasts can be wrong<\/a>. Despite predictions to the contrary, much of Texas has seen above-average rains in the first months of winter. <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/02\/02\/the-countdown-continues-5-percent-of-texas-is-now-drought-free\/\">Dallas\/Fort Worth has become drought-free<\/a>, and much of Harris County (and Houston) and all of El Paso are <a href=\"http:\/\/droughtmonitor.unl.edu\/DM_state.htm?TX,S\">now in the lightest stage of drought<\/a>, the &#8220;moderate&#8221; level. Austin and San Antonio have moved from the second level of drought, &#8220;severe,&#8221; from levels of &#8220;extreme&#8221; and &#8220;exceptional&#8221; before that. It&#8217;s fair to say that for the big population centers of Texas, drought conditions have improved greatly, but as you can see from the latest drought monitor released today, areas of extreme and exceptional drought remain:<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5686\"  class=\"wp-caption module image center\" style=\"max-width: 620px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"The latest drought monitor shows improvements for the big cities in Texas\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/tx_dm.png\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-5686\" title=\"tx_dm\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/tx_dm-620x460.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"460\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/tx_dm-620x460.png 620w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/tx_dm-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/tx_dm-220x163.png 220w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/tx_dm-138x103.png 138w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/02\/tx_dm.png 670w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Map by National Drought Monitor<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">The latest drought monitor shows improvements for the big cities in Texas<\/p><\/div>\n<p>But what are the odds of La Ni\u00f1a\u00a0coming back this fall and extending the drought even further? When La Ni\u00f1a showed up in the summer of 2010, she overstayed her welcome, returning the very next year for back-to-back La Ni\u00f1as, which became a major factor in the drought. &#8220;In fact, it was the second strongest La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a on record, and that was a strong contributor, perhaps a main contributor to the record-setting drought conditions we&#8217;ve had in Texas,&#8221; Murphy of the National Weather Service says.<\/p>\n<p>So while this was a &#8220;double-dipping&#8221; La Ni\u00f1a, as Murphy says, what are the chances of a threepeat? History would tell us the odds are 50\/50. In\u00a0five out of the last ten two-year La Ni\u00f1as, they were followed by a third year of the pattern. Texas state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon told StateImpact Texas last month that there\u2019s \u201cno guarantee\u201d that won\u2019t happen this time, which would take the record single-year drought into even more extreme territory.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a video of La Ni\u00f1a in motion from the National Weather Service:<br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/I6-l0flmHY4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When will the drought end? It&#8217;s truly too soon to say, but one of the main culprits, La Ni\u00f1a, is going to be leaving us soon. But there&#8217;s a catch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":5683,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[58],"tags":[61,110,85],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/50"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5682"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5714,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5682\/revisions\/5714"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}