{"id":39960,"date":"2015-03-16T12:40:41","date_gmt":"2015-03-16T17:40:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/?p=39960"},"modified":"2015-03-16T12:40:41","modified_gmt":"2015-03-16T17:40:41","slug":"how-the-oceans-have-dried-texas-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2015\/03\/16\/how-the-oceans-have-dried-texas-out\/","title":{"rendered":"How The Oceans Have Dried Texas Out"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1245\"  class=\"wp-caption module image right\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"A weed grows out of the dry cracked bed of O.C. Fisher Lake in July. The drought has taken a severe toll on Texas' lakes and rivers.\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/11\/119835727.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1245\" alt=\"A weed grows out of the dry cracked bed of O.C. Fisher Lake in July. The drought has taken a severe toll on Texas' lakes and rivers.\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/11\/119835727-300x200.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/11\/119835727-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/11\/119835727-220x146.jpg 220w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/11\/119835727.jpg 594w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Photo by Scott Olson\/Getty Images<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">A weed grows out of the dry cracked bed of O.C. Fisher Lake in July. The drought has taken a severe toll on Texas&#39; lakes and rivers.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Over the last several years, climate patterns from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans have exacerbated the historic Texas drought. A reverse in those patterns could bring Texas abundant rains over the next couple decades, according to State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.<\/p>\n<p>But, Nielsen-Gammon\u00a0says, long term trends give Texans no reason to break out the champagne. \u00a0Global climate change means the next major drought could be even <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/drought\/\">worse than this one<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Texas climate is sensitive to weather cycles in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and neither has favored precipitation in the state since 2005.\u00a0 \u201cThe Pacific Ocean has been unfavorable for rainfall since about 2000 or 2005. The Atlantic Ocean has been unfavorable since 1995,\u201d Nielsen-Gammon said.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/w.soundcloud.com\/player\/?url=https%3A\/\/api.soundcloud.com\/tracks\/196169993&amp;color=ff5500&amp;auto_play=false&amp;hide_related=false&amp;show_comments=true&amp;show_user=true&amp;show_reposts=false\" height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><!--more-->The combined effects of the two cycles, called the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation\">Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation<\/a> and the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Pacific_decadal_oscillation\">Pacific Decadal Oscillation<\/a>, can limit or increase rainfall in the state by as much as twenty percent.<\/p>\n<p>Historical patterns suggest that the two oscillations cycle between favoring dry and wet Texas weather every thirty or so years. Nielsen-Gammon says the state is now emerging from a dry period.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_20609\"  class=\"wp-caption module image left\" style=\"max-width: 270px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, says Texas is facing a 50-50 chance of being in another drought of record.\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-20609\" alt=\"John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, says Texas is facing a 50-50 chance of being in another drought of record.\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon-270x300.jpg\" width=\"270\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon-270x300.jpg 270w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon-620x687.jpg 620w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon.jpg 888w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 270px) 100vw, 270px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Photo courtesy of Texas A&amp;M University<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, says Texas is facing a 50-50 chance of being in another drought of record.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>But future droughts are expected to be more severe as climate change makes Texas hotter, and causes surface water to evaporate more quickly. Evaporation rates increase by about five percent for every degree Fahrenheit rise in the annual temperature. Climate models predict that the state will be 0.5 \u2013 2 degrees hotter at the cusp of the next dry cycle, in thirty years.<\/p>\n<p>Texas temperatures had trended downwards through the 20th century until the 1970s, the coldest decade in most of the southern United States. They have rebounded steeply since then, surpassing the historical norm about fifteen years ago. The state is on average 1.5 degrees hotter now than it was four decades ago.<\/p>\n<p>Nielson-Gammon says climatologists aren\u2019t sure how the Atlantic the Pacific oscillations will respond to climate change, but it is unlikely that Texas will receive enough precipitation to offset the faster surface water evaporation rates.<\/p>\n<p>One thing that appears to be helping keep moisture in Texas soil is the way plants are\u00a0adapting to climate change.<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"related-content alignright\"><h4 class=\"related-header\">Related<\/h4><div class=\"links\"><h5>Posts<\/h5><ul><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2015\/01\/02\/how-we-weigh-carbon-emissions-a-radio-drama\/\">How We Weigh Carbon Emissions: A Radio Drama<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/09\/11\/texas-and-the-on-again-off-again-el-nino\/\">What an On-Again, Off-Again El Ni\u00f1o Means For Texas<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/07\/22\/climate-change-clouds-future-of-weather-forecasting\/\">Climate Change Clouds Future of El Ni\u00f1o Forecasting<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"topics\"><h5>Topics<\/h5><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/10\/120001038-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/topic\/la-nina\/\">What is La Ni\u00f1a?<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>Plants draw water from the soil to survive but release most of it through their pores, which they open to take in carbon dioxide. This process, called transpiration, is responsible for a significant portion of surface water evaporation. As atmospheric concentrations of the carbon dioxide rise, plants don\u2019t have to keep their pores open as long, reducing the amount of water lost to the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p>The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has risen by 17 percent globally since 1980, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). To learn how scientist measure the amount of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere click here.<\/p>\n<p>As far as what to expect from the weather this summer?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI basically don\u2019t do summer forecasts,&#8221; says Neilsen-Gammon. &#8220;I just say, It\u2019s gonna be hot. And leave it at that.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Seems like a safe bet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the last several years, climate patterns from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans have exacerbated the historic Texas drought. A reverse in those patterns could bring Texas abundant rains over the next couple decades, according to State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon. But, Nielsen-Gammon\u00a0says, long term trends give Texans no reason to break out the champagne. \u00a0Global [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":178,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[58],"tags":[424,61],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39960"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/178"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39960"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39960\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39989,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39960\/revisions\/39989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}