{"id":38501,"date":"2014-09-11T16:07:37","date_gmt":"2014-09-11T21:07:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/?p=38501"},"modified":"2014-09-14T10:16:55","modified_gmt":"2014-09-14T15:16:55","slug":"texas-and-the-on-again-off-again-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/09\/11\/texas-and-the-on-again-off-again-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"What an On-Again, Off-Again El Ni\u00f1o Means For Texas"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_38511\"  class=\"wp-caption module image center\" style=\"max-width: 620px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"For El Nino to fully appear, the ocean temperature must change the atmosphere.\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/clouds-4-edit.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-38511\" alt=\"For El Nino to fully appear, the ocean temperature must change the atmosphere.\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/clouds-4-edit-620x325.jpg\" width=\"620\" height=\"325\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/clouds-4-edit-620x325.jpg 620w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/clouds-4-edit-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/clouds-4-edit.jpg 1185w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Photo by Mose Buchele<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">For El Nino to fully appear, the ocean temperature must enter a feedback loop with the atmosphere.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Earlier this year Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose, liked what he was seeing in the forecast.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m optimistic that we will get into a pattern of above normal rainfall this fall continuing into next winter and possibly into next spring as well,\u201d he said in April.<\/p>\n<p>But since then things changed.<\/p>\n<p>After much ado, the El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0predicted by many meteorologists hasn\u2019t quite showed itself in the form rainfall yet. While there\u2019s still a chance it could strengthen before the summer\u2019s end, it\u2019s not likely it will meet its initial forecasted fury.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/w.soundcloud.com\/player\/?url=https%3A\/\/api.soundcloud.com\/tracks\/167248852&amp;color=ff5500&amp;auto_play=false&amp;hide_related=false&amp;show_comments=true&amp;show_user=true&amp;show_reposts=false\" height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o, while it looked like it was really starting to ramp up, and would really start to develop in September. It actually took a pause in July,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->We often talk about El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0like it\u2019s a single, identifiable event, but it\u2019s a really series of things \u2013 a pattern that can result in wet weather in North America. What got us so excited in the spring was the first piece in that pattern: The temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean started to warm.<\/p>\n<p>We knew because of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project, a network of buoys in the Pacific.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_38515\"  class=\"wp-caption module image right\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"An image of the TOA system from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/lazers.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-38515\" alt=\"An image of the TOA system from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/lazers-300x277.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"277\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/lazers-300x277.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2014\/09\/lazers.jpg 605w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Credit Courtesy of NOAA<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">An image of the TOA system from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cThey\u2019re actually anchored buoys out in the deep in the ocean which is a technological feat,\u201d says John Neilsen-Gammon, the State Climatologist of Texas. \u201cThey were put in because, well, back in the \u201880s we discovered, \u2018Gee, this El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0thing is important. We better figure out what\u2019s going on!\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So, this spring the buoys were picking up a nice big bulge of warm water heading east, which made it to the surface of the Eastern Pacific, warming up temperatures by as much as a degree or a degree and a half, Neilsen-Gammon says.<\/p>\n<p>That sets the stage for the next step \u2013when the warmer surface water engages with the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThunderstorm storm activity has to respond to that and move from where it normally is in the western pacific back to the east,\u201d says Neilsen-Gammon.<\/p>\n<p>He calls it a feedback loop, \u201cI mean the normal thing that people think about when they think about positive feedback is when you have so a microphone that\u2019s close to a speaker.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When the sound is generated the microphone picks it up. Then the sound comes out through the speaker. It gets picked up by the microphone again. Then back to the speaker in an ever increasing echo and amplification.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_20609\"  class=\"wp-caption module image left\" style=\"max-width: 270px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, says Texas is facing a 50-50 chance of being in another drought of record.\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-20609\" alt=\"John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, says Texas is facing a 50-50 chance of being in another drought of record.\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon-270x300.jpg\" width=\"270\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon-270x300.jpg 270w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon-620x687.jpg 620w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/11\/nielson-gammon.jpg 888w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 270px) 100vw, 270px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Photo courtesy of Texas A&amp;M University<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, says Texas is facing a 50-50 chance of being in another drought of record.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cSo that\u2019s sort of what\u2019s going on here with the ocean. You get the signal of warm water that comes up from the surface. And if the atmosphere picks up that signal and responds to it. Then that reinforces that signal in the ocean then everything gets stronger and stronger.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Except, this year, that didn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI was a little bit disappointed. I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s the right word. I was intrigued when this August those water temperatures started to cool off,\u201d says Rose.<\/p>\n<p>Something similar happened in happened in 2012. \u201cWhat we saw in that year was the water temperatures did warm up,&#8221; he says. &#8220;But there was nothing there to help sustain that warm water into the fall period. And the trade winds reversed and we started seeing cooler waters [coming] in and everything just sort of collapsed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s two times in three years where the pattern has fallen apart. So, could climate change be messing with El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe answer is absolutely yes! It could be influenced,&#8221; says Neilsen-Gammon in response to the question. &#8220;Of course the next part of the answer is going to be really disappointing, we don\u2019t know which direction climate change is going to influence things.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Climate change could make El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0more likely, or less likely. Right now the models just aren\u2019t conclusive. Neilsen-Gammon says a definitive answer could come in about five years.<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"related-content alignright\"><h4 class=\"related-header\">Related<\/h4><div class=\"links\"><h5>Posts<\/h5><ul><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/07\/22\/climate-change-clouds-future-of-weather-forecasting\/\">Climate Change Clouds Future of El Ni\u00f1o Forecasting<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/05\/05\/drought-buster-on-its-way-to-texas-not-so-fast-forecaster-says\/\">El Ni\u00f1o a Drought-Buster for Texas? Not So Fast, Forecaster Says<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/03\/18\/next-3-months-huge-in-preventing-brutal-texas-summer\/\">Next 3 Months &#8216;Huge&#8217; In Preventing Brutal Texas Summer<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/02\/13\/could-2014-be-a-drought-buster-for-texas\/\">Could 2014 Be a Drought-Buster for Texas?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"topics\"><h5>Topics<\/h5><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2011\/10\/120001038-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/topic\/la-nina\/\">What is La Ni\u00f1a?<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>And in the case of this year, don\u2019t count El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0out just yet. The waters in the pacific have started warming again. There\u2019s still around a 65 percent chance of a weak or moderate El Nino forming by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not as strong as many were hoping, and it means some parts of the country, like California, likely wont get the massive rainfall necessary to pull them from drought. But, according to Bob Rose, the strength of an El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0doesn&#8217;t matter so much to Texas, even weak ones often bring rain here.<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s still predicting above normal rainfall starting in the fall and through the winter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earlier this year Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose, liked what he was seeing in the forecast. \u201cI\u2019m optimistic that we will get into a pattern of above normal rainfall this fall continuing into next winter and possibly into next spring as well,\u201d he said in April. But since then things changed. After much [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[58],"tags":[386,31],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38501"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38501"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38501\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38521,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38501\/revisions\/38521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}