{"id":37991,"date":"2014-07-22T13:50:02","date_gmt":"2014-07-22T18:50:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/?p=37991"},"modified":"2014-07-23T10:42:14","modified_gmt":"2014-07-23T15:42:14","slug":"climate-change-clouds-future-of-weather-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2014\/07\/22\/climate-change-clouds-future-of-weather-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change Clouds Future of El Ni\u00f1o Forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"

In Central Texas, where water reservoirs sit at under 40 percent capacity, all eyes are on watch for El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, a global weather phenomenon that generally brings generous rain to the area. The National Weather Service predicts an 80 percent chance<\/a> of a weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1o this fall, dampening hopes<\/a> for a season of strong rains to alleviate drought<\/a> across much of the southwest US.<\/p>\n

But some scientists have warned<\/a> that El Ni\u00f1o, itself poorly understood<\/a>, cannot be well forecast amidst the effects<\/a> of man-made climate change.\u00a0As the global climate changes in reaction to increased manmade carbon emissions, forecasting global weather patterns can be difficult.<\/p>\n

\"This<\/a>

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association \/ National Climate Data Center<\/p>

This map shows a very warm year with most measured temperatures well above average.<\/p><\/div>\n

In June, worldwide sea surface temperatures<\/a>\u00a0were higher than the 20th<\/sup> Century average by a greater margin than ever before. On land and sea<\/a>, the month was the hottest June ever recorded, according to the most recent monthly climate analysis<\/a> by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).<\/p>\n

Predicting global weather year to year becomes increasingly tricky<\/a> as the basic climate gradually changes. Some researchers say El Ni\u00f1o will come more often<\/a> in the future. Others say it will be less frequent and more intense<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to the NOAA report, global temperatures have been above average for 352 consecutive months \u2013 every month since February 1985. Measurements highlight a global warming trend.<\/p>\n

\"This<\/a>

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>

This graph shows average global year-to-date temperatures fro every year since 1880.The crimson lines represent years 2013, 2010, 2005, 2003 and 1998; the green line is 2014.<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cNine of the ten warmest Junes on record have occurred during the 21st<\/sup> century, including each of the past five years. June 2014 also marks the second consecutive month with record high global temperatures. With the exception of February (21st<\/sup> warmest), every month to date in 2014 has ranked among the four warmest for its respective month,\u201d said the report.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> occurs when patterns in Pacific water currents change. Warm water gathered around the Southeast Asian coast begins to flow eastward until South America exchanging the climates of generally wet Southeast Asia and the dry western desert of South America. Unusually warm waters alter wind patterns, warming air and creating convection currents that can affect the entire globe. Many global and local effects of El Ni\u00f1o have been repeatedly observed since 1950<\/a> but still cannot be explained.<\/p>\n

\"This<\/a>

NASA \/ California Institute of Technology<\/p>

This satellite image shows ocean topography, a good indicator of ocean temperature, during the 1997098 El Ni\u00f1o. The weather phenomenon is characterized by warm water in the Eastern Pacific and cool water in the West.<\/p><\/div>\n

Even in Texas there is no consensus<\/a> about El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s effects and forecasters have predicted both above and below-average rain to accompany the phenomenon.<\/p>\n

If El Ni\u00f1o comes and it brings extra rains to Texas, they won\u2019t likely come until September<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In Central Texas, where water reservoirs sit at under 40 percent capacity, all eyes are on watch for El Ni\u00f1o, a global weather phenomenon that generally brings generous rain to the area. The National Weather Service predicts an 80 percent chance of a weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1o this fall, dampening hopes for a season […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":172,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[58],"tags":[61,122,212],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37991"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/172"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37991"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38020,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37991\/revisions\/38020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}