{"id":2622,"date":"2011-12-01T12:45:44","date_gmt":"2011-12-01T18:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/?p=2622"},"modified":"2011-12-01T12:47:37","modified_gmt":"2011-12-01T18:47:37","slug":"will-the-lights-stay-on-in-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2011\/12\/01\/will-the-lights-stay-on-in-texas\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Lights Stay On in Texas?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Photo by Dave Einsel\/Getty Images<\/p>

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Two new reports were released today by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the state’s power grid. The reports look at both the upcoming winter in Texas<\/a>\u00a0as well as a ten-year outlook<\/a>\u00a0and what sort of risks are in store for the energy grid.<\/p>\n

In both cases, the outlook is not good. This winter the grid could find itself strained again as it did during the blackouts earlier this year<\/a>. \u201cOur assessment indicates a concern if we experience a simultaneous occurrence of extreme weather and worst-case generation outages, much like February of this year,\u201d Trip Doggett, the CEO of ERCOT, said in a release accompanying the reports.<\/p>\n

And in the next ten years, the state will find itself with less power and more demand. Starting next summer, the state’s reserves to avoid outages “will likely fall below the minimum target beginning next summer.” This number is known as the “reserve margin.” It’s ERCOT’s extra capacity to handle peak times of energy demand avoid outages.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are very concerned about the significant drop in the reserve margin,\u201d Doggett said in a release accompanying the report.\u00a0 \u201cIf we stay in the current cycle of hot and dry summers, we will be very tight on capacity next summer and have a repeat of this year\u2019s emergency procedures and conservation appeals.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The specifics? ERCOT says that because of delays in building power plants and the closure of others, by the summer of 2012 there will be a decrease of 2,600 MW of available power, which is about four percent of ERCOT’s projected power needs.<\/p>\n

For both this winter, next summer, and beyond, ERCOT found that even as the state’s energy resources increase, demand is growing at such a rate that it cannot keep up with it. Take a look at these numbers showing projected demand vs. resources. Keep in mind these load forecasts are for “normal weather:”<\/p>\n

Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n\n

2012<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2013<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2014<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2015<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2016<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2017<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Summer firm load forecast, normal weather (MW)<\/td>\n64,618<\/td>\n65,428<\/td>\n\n

68,174<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

71,457<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

73,713<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

75,106<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Resources (MW)<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0 72,444<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a073,327<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a073,383<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a073,992<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a076,833<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a078,136<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Reserve margin (13.75% minimum target)<\/td>\n12.1%<\/td>\n12.1%<\/td>\n\n

7.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Change since May Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report<\/td>\n5.4<\/td>\n2.2<\/td>\n\n

3.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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