{"id":19143,"date":"2012-10-03T07:08:57","date_gmt":"2012-10-03T12:08:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/?p=19143"},"modified":"2012-11-14T16:25:30","modified_gmt":"2012-11-14T22:25:30","slug":"fire-drought-and-the-climate-wars-a-talk-with-michael-mann","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/10\/03\/fire-drought-and-the-climate-wars-a-talk-with-michael-mann\/","title":{"rendered":"Fire, Drought and the Climate Wars: A Talk with Michael Mann"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Photo by Mose Buchele<\/p>

Professor Michael Mann is the Director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University and author of the famous "hockey stick" graph.<\/p><\/div>\n

In 2010 Dr. Michael Mann, already world-renowned (and, in some corners, infamous) for linking global warming to CO2 emissions, published an editorial<\/a> in the Washington Post.<\/p>\n

Mann had recently seen many of his emails hacked and leaked in an unsuccessful attempt<\/a> to discredit his work. He was also facing a lawsuit (also, ultimately, unsuccessful)<\/a> by climate change skeptic Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli. The editorial Mann wrote was aimed at his critics, but it also served as a summary of his own findings and of the scientific consensus on climate change.<\/p>\n

“Overloading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is heating the planet, shrinking the Arctic ice cap, melting glaciers and raising sea levels,” he wrote<\/a>. “It is leading to more widespread drought, more frequent heat waves and more powerful hurricanes.”<\/p>\n

Two years later, in the lead up to this week’s SXSW Eco Conference<\/a>, we had the chance to ask Mann what, if anything, has changed.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Mann:<\/strong> What we are seeing is that things are happening even faster than we had projected. Whether you\u2019re talking about arctic sea ice decline, or whether you\u2019re talking about the record heat and drought and wildfire that we saw here in the U.S. this summer and the previous summer.

“What we are seeing is that things are happening even faster than we had projected. Whether you\u2019re talking about arctic sea ice decline, whether you\u2019re talking about the record heat and drought and wildfire that we saw here in the U.S. this summer and the previous summer.” — Michael Mann<\/strong><\/div><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>So while the changes are actually unfolding even faster, in many respects, than we had predicted, and the science has become that much more solid, the gulf continues between what the science says and what one might gather from the public discourse on this issue.<\/p>\n

StateImpact Texas:<\/strong> Often this debate, on both sides, is couched as a \u2018Us versus Them\u2019 thing. Is there a place where the science is right now, where reasonable people may be able to disagree?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mann:<\/strong> Those of us who study the science of climate change really wish we were having that worthy debate about uncertainties that do exist because they do have implications. For example, when it comes to predicting how rainfall patterns, and seasonal temperature patterns will shift at regional scales, be it here in Texas or be it up in Pennsylvania, where I live.<\/p>\n

We aren\u2019t quite there yet. We are not quite at the point where we can make confident projections of how those regional weather patterns will change. And unfortunately, in our public discourse, we are still stuck in this unworthy debate about whether or not the problem really exists, which prevents us from getting into the good faith debate on what we can do about the problem.<\/p>\n

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