{"id":10185,"date":"2012-05-14T06:00:34","date_gmt":"2012-05-14T11:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/?p=10185"},"modified":"2012-05-15T11:00:12","modified_gmt":"2012-05-15T16:00:12","slug":"goldilocks-and-the-price-of-oil-in-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/05\/14\/goldilocks-and-the-price-of-oil-in-texas\/","title":{"rendered":"As Prices Fall, Finding a Sweet Spot for Oil in Texas"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_10349\"  class=\"wp-caption module image left\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/05\/14\/goldilocks-and-the-price-of-oil-in-texas\/energy-corridor-pics-011\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10349\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10349\" title=\" 011\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/05\/energy-corridor-pics-011-300x224.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/05\/energy-corridor-pics-011-300x224.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/05\/energy-corridor-pics-011-620x465.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Dave Fehling\/StateImpact Texas<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Deep in the Heart of Texas Oil: an Italian restaurant has pulse of industry<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Barbie Lomonte works in a part of Houston that has one of its biggest concentrations of oil and gas companies. She knows a lot about the industry and what the price for a barrel of oil means to it.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Business has been wonderful, oil and gas are doing well and I have nothing to complain about,&#8221; said Lamonte as her employees bustled around her, filling orders.<\/p>\n<p>She herself isn&#8217;t an oil trader nor does her company do any drilling. But it does use lots of oil. But of the olive variety, not Texas tea.\u00a0She owns Lomonte&#8217;s Italian Restaurant.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re right in the middle of the Energy Corridor,&#8221; said Lomonte.<\/p>\n<p>The<a title=\"Corridor website\" href=\"http:\/\/www.energycorridor.org\/\"> Energy Corridor<\/a> is what the locals call a strip along Interstate 10 that runs west out of Houston. From Lomonte&#8217;s\u00a0restaurant, you can drive less than two miles and pass the headquarters of ConocoPhillips, BP America and CITGO. At lunch time, a shuttle bus brings geologists, oil engineers, and accountants by the dozens to Lomonte&#8217;s and several other eateries clustered under big live oaks.<\/p>\n<p>Lomonte has run the restaurant for over two decades and has shared the roller-coaster ride that is the oil business in Texas.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->&#8220;The worse was, unfortunately, the spill in the Gulf. That was painful for all of us,&#8221; Lomonte said of the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Over the years, Lomonte said she has seen the demeanor of her clients dim and brighten with the price per barrel: hunkering down and spending less on wine when oil prices fell and splurging when prices reached where they&#8217;ve been this year: around $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;When it&#8217;s good, they&#8217;re celebrating more,&#8221; said Lomonte.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-content alignleft\"><h4 class=\"related-header\">Related<\/h4><div class=\"links\"><h5>Posts<\/h5><ul><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/01\/24\/how-fracking-is-changing-south-texas\/\">How Fracking is Changing the Face of South\u00a0Texas<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/02\/24\/pain-at-the-pump-do-oil-speculators-need-reigning-in\/\">Why Are Gas Prices So High? Speculating About Oil Speculation<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/04\/04\/why-are-gas-prices-so-high-a-multimedia-guide-by-climate-desk\/\">Why Are Gas Prices So High? A Multimedia Guide By Climate Desk<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/04\/09\/how-predictable-are-higher-gas-prices\/\">How Predictable are Higher Gas Prices?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"topics\"><h5>Topics<\/h5><p class=\"topic\"><a href=\"\"><\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<h3>The &#8216;Goldilocks&#8217; Price<\/h3>\n<p>Her customers aren&#8217;t the only ones in Texas who are happy with what oil is now selling for.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Right now, we seem to be in a sweet spot,&#8221; said James LeBas who advises the <a title=\"TXOGA website\" href=\"http:\/\/www.txoga.org\/categories\/About-Us\/\">Texas Oil &amp; Gas Association<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>LeBas used to work for the State of Texas, estimating how much revenue would come from taxes, including those from oil and gas drilling.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Employment is rising, production is rising, drilling is rising. State and local governments are taking in a lot of additional tax revenues that were unanticipated. And as long as we stay in this band where we are today, it seems to be healthy for everybody,&#8221; said LeBas.<\/p>\n<p>Some call it the Goldilock&#8217;s price for oil: not too low that it discourages production, not too high that it hurts demand.<\/p>\n<h3>For Texas, More Tax Revenue<\/h3>\n<p>A few decades ago, the state got roughly a quarter of <a href=\"sources of taxes\">all tax revenue<\/a> from oil and gas production. Today, it gets only about half that, said Dale Craymer, another former revenue estimator for Texas and now president of the <a title=\"TTARA website\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ttara.org\/\">Texas Taxpayers and Research Association<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;But still, no question, it&#8217;s a\u00a0critically\u00a0important source of revenue to the state,&#8221; Craymer told StateImpact Texas.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Texas state finances tend to rise and fall with the health of the oil and gas industry,&#8221; said Craymer. And right now, those finances are beating expectations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;(The state&#8217;s) official budget projections are based on a little less than $80 a barrel. And we&#8217;re running close to $100 a barrel now so we are running well in excess of our official forecast,&#8221; said Craymer.<\/p>\n<h3>How Low is Too Low?<\/h3>\n<p>That relatively high price has helped support the current drilling boom, much of which relies on hydraulic fracturing or &#8220;fracking,&#8221; as it&#8217;s called. (The highest price for West Texas Intermediate crude was $145 in July 2008, but by September of that year it dropped back below $100.)<\/p>\n<p>How far would prices have to fall to slow it down? James LeBas, the other former state revenue estimator, says it&#8217;s not that much further: &#8220;If (energy companies) believe that we&#8217;re going to be in the $80 range, then they will probably continue to explore and develop at the current level.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>But if the price falls below that magic $80 sweet spot?<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Each company will make its own decision but the lower the price goes, more of them will hit their magic number where they will decide to curtail exploration and production,&#8221; said LeBas.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_10348\"  class=\"wp-caption module image left\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/2012\/05\/14\/goldilocks-and-the-price-of-oil-in-texas\/dietert-002\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10348\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10348\" title=\" 002\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/05\/Dietert-002-300x224.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/05\/Dietert-002-300x224.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/files\/2012\/05\/Dietert-002-620x465.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\"> <\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Jeff Dietert at Simmons &amp; Company<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Many of the companies operating in the hottest spots for drilling in Texas&#8212;the Permian Basin in West Texas, the Barnett Shale in North Texas, and the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas&#8212;might be able to do business as usual even if prices dropped into the $70 range, according to<a title=\"bio\" href=\"http:\/\/www.simmonsco-intl.com\/About-Us\/Our-Team\/Houston\/Jeff-A-Dietert\/\"> Jeff Dietert<\/a>,\u00a0co-head of research at Simmons &amp; Company, a Houston-based investment bank for the energy industry.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The cost of a well is going down, the number of days to drill a well is declining as operators get more efficient with these new technologies,&#8221; Dietert told StateImpact Texas.<\/p>\n<p>Oil prices are affected by the overall world economy, by production decisions made by cartels and by conflicts in foreign, oil-producing countries. In recent days, the trend has been downward.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What&#8217;s happened is that we&#8217;re over-supplying the market, inventories are building. So that&#8217;s recently put some pressure on oil prices and we&#8217;re seeing them come down,&#8221; said Dietert.<\/p>\n<p>Whether prices will continue to fall is anyone&#8217;s guess. And no one knows how long the Goldilocks price that has been so good for Texas will last.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gas prices are going down. For a state heavy on drilling, how low is too low?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":10348,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[59],"tags":[15,21],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10185"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/53"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10185\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/texas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}