{"id":15467,"date":"2013-08-02T09:32:06","date_gmt":"2013-08-02T14:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/?p=15467"},"modified":"2013-08-02T09:40:02","modified_gmt":"2013-08-02T14:40:02","slug":"twister-truths-does-the-tornado-risk-peak-after-the-school-day-ends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/2013\/08\/02\/twister-truths-does-the-tornado-risk-peak-after-the-school-day-ends\/","title":{"rendered":"Twister Truths: Does the Tornado Risk Peak After the School Day Ends?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_15471\"  class=\"wp-caption module image right\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-15471\" alt=\"A mile-wide tornado near El Reno, Okla. on May 31, 2013.\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/08\/ok-tornado-300x195.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/08\/ok-tornado-300x195.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/08\/ok-tornado-500x325.jpg 500w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/08\/ok-tornado-150x98.jpg 150w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/08\/ok-tornado.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Richard Rowe \/ Reuters\/Landov<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mile-wide tornado near El Reno, Okla. on May 31, 2013.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><em>This is part one in our Twister Truths series where we use data to kick the tires on the conventional wisdom underlying severe weather policy in Oklahoma.<\/em><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">In Oklahoma, state and local emergency authorities emphasize individual shelters in peoples\u2019 homes over communal shelters in schools or other civic buildings. <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/2013\/06\/20\/why-oklahomas-priority-is-storm-shelters-for-individuals-not-safe-rooms-for-schools\/\">As we reported here<\/a>, almost all the federal disaster funding the state receives has been directed to rebates for the construction of residential shelters and safe rooms.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Seven children died in the Plaza Towers Elementary School when the EF-5 tornado ripped through Moore on May 20, but Oklahoma policymakers \u2014 from Gov. Mary Fallin and Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management Director Albert Ashwood to local school officials \u2014 say a large-scale effort to build storm shelters at public schools, <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/2013\/06\/20\/why-oklahomas-priority-is-storm-shelters-for-individuals-not-safe-rooms-for-schools\/\">as other states have done<\/a>, is unlikely.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">One of the main reasons, they say: Most tornadoes don\u2019t happen during the school day. In other words, the tragedy at Plaza Towers was highly unusual.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">But is that claim true?<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><!--more-->[module align=&#8221;right&#8221; width=&#8221;half&#8221; type=&#8221;pull-quote&#8221;]\u201dMost of them don\u2019t hit during school hours. Most often times, people have actually gone home. So, yeah, we\u2019ve probably put a little more emphasis on people when they get home, do they have a safe place to go?\u201d<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u2014Albert Ashwood, director of the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management[\/module]<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">State emergency management officials say they emphasize individual storm shelters because most tornadoes occur during times of the day when most Oklahomans are home from work and school. And local officials have used the \u201cpeak tornado times\u201d reasoning <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/2013\/06\/27\/the-evolution-of-public-shelter-policy-in-oklahoma\/\">to justify closing community storm shelters<\/a> out of concern for keeping Oklahomans at home and off the road during severe weather.<\/p><p>Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association and a StateImpact analysis of the touchdown times of Oklahoma tornadoes from 1950-2011 supports both these claims:<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_15080\"  class=\"wp-caption module image center\" style=\"max-width: 620px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-15080\" alt=\"The risk of tornadoes grows after the public school day ends, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Information show.\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/07\/tornadotimes-620x345.png\" width=\"620\" height=\"345\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/07\/tornadotimes-620x345.png 620w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/07\/tornadotimes-500x278.png 500w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/07\/tornadotimes-1920x1069.png 1920w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/07\/tornadotimes-150x83.png 150w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2013\/07\/tornadotimes-300x167.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Joe Wertz \/ StateImpact Oklahoma<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">The risk of tornadoes grows after the public school day ends, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0An-0uSFNZhY0dEk3MUVxTDNPcHdXcDdTOFNuQVFPakE&usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\">Download<\/a>\u00a0data<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Tornadoes have touched down at all hours, but the numbers rise dramatically after 3 p.m., when the school day ends for most Oklahoma students. The risk of tornadoes peaks from about 4:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., during rush hour and times when most Oklahomans are home from work or school.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<div class=\"related-content alignright\">\n<h4 class=\"related-header\">Related<\/h4>\n<div class=\"links\">\n<h5>Posts<\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/2013\/06\/27\/the-evolution-of-public-shelter-policy-in-oklahoma\/\">From Nuclear Fallout To Tornadoes, A Shifting View of Public Shelter Policy in Oklahoma<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/2013\/06\/20\/why-oklahomas-priority-is-storm-shelters-for-individuals-not-safe-rooms-for-schools\/\">Why Oklahoma&#8217;s Priority is Storm Shelters for Individuals, Not Safe Rooms for Schools<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"topics\">\n<h5>Topics<\/h5>\n<p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/files\/2011\/08\/tornadoTN.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/topic\/disaster-spending\/\">How the State Pays to Clean up After Tornadoes and other Disasters<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><p>Of the 3,390 tornadoes reported in the last 60 years, only 416 \u2014 that\u2019s about 12 percent \u2014 have touched down during the 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. window most schools are open when they are in session. Our data analysis doesn\u2019t account for weekends and the traditional summer break most Oklahoma students enjoy, but those factors would likely reduce the risk of school day tornadoes even more.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Superintendents in many Oklahoma school districts are considering cancelling classes and issuing \u201ctornado days\u201d when the threat of severe weather looms. <a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/2013\/07\/11\/some-shelterless-oklahoma-schools-to-cancel-class-when-tornados-threaten\/\">We looked at that trend in a story last month.<\/a><\/p><p>Tolerance of risk when it comes to children can be a sensitive subject, of course. But if school officials were looking at this purely by the numbers, some might conclude that cancelling a whole day of school based on the threat of a tornado is overkill. Only 104 tornadoes \u2014 roughly 3 percent \u2014 touched down from 8 a.m. to noon. A data-driven superintendent might cancel only afternoon classes, rather than the whole day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is part one in our Twister Truths series where we use data to kick the tires on the conventional wisdom underlying severe weather policy in Oklahoma. In Oklahoma, state and local emergency authorities emphasize individual shelters in peoples\u2019 homes over communal shelters in schools or other civic buildings. As we reported here, almost all [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[492],"tags":[539,557],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15467"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/36"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15467"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15478,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15467\/revisions\/15478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/oklahoma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}