{"id":8188,"date":"2012-05-07T15:09:15","date_gmt":"2012-05-07T19:09:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/?p=8188"},"modified":"2012-05-07T15:09:40","modified_gmt":"2012-05-07T19:09:40","slug":"why-nhs-economy-is-especially-important-for-the-2012-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/05\/07\/why-nhs-economy-is-especially-important-for-the-2012-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Why NH&#8217;s Economy Is Especially Important For The 2012 Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_8189\"  class=\"wp-caption module image right\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"There's no guarantee President Obama will win NH in 2012\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143905875.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8189\" title=\"US President Barack Obama speaks during\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143905875-300x199.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143905875-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143905875-620x412.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Brendan Smialowski \/ AFP\/Getty Images<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">While Obama won NH in 2008, there&#39;s no guarantee he&#39;ll snag the Granite State a second time around<\/p><\/div>\n<p>At this point, politicos figure nine states could go to either Obama or Romney this November: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and&#8230;New Hampshire.\u00a0 All of them went for Barack Obama back in 2008.\u00a0 But <a title=\"9 Swing States, Critical to Presidential Race, Are Mixed Lot\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/05\/06\/us\/politics\/9-swing-states-key-to-election-are-mixed-lot.html?_r=1&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;emc=edit_th_20120507\" target=\"_blank\"><em>New York Times <\/em>reporter Michael Cooper notes<\/a> that Republicans have also made some major strides in those states over the past few years.\u00a0 And the rate of economic recovery looks very different in each place.\u00a0 Cooper writes that a number of economic factors beyond the axiomatic &#8220;It&#8217;s the economy, stupid!&#8221; could be in play:<!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;It would be hard to argue that these states are better off now than they were four years ago, given that they have yet to recover the jobs they lost. Often, that makes a compelling argument for a challenger trying to unseat an incumbent.<\/p>\n<p>But political scientists have found that past elections have been more influenced by the changes in the economy in the year or two before the election. And a range of economic data provided by Moody\u2019s Analytics shows that all nine states are rebounding and that most now have unemployment rates below the national average. If voters in those states begin to feel the improvement by the fall and the economy does not take a turn for the worse, it could aid the president\u2019s efforts to hold on to enough of them to win.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><div class=\"related-content alignright\"><h4 class=\"related-header\">Related<\/h4><div class=\"links\"><h5>Posts<\/h5><ul><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/01\/09\/six-ways-new-hampshire-voters-think-about-jobs-and-the-economy\/\">Six Ways New Hampshire Voters Think About Jobs And The Economy<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/01\/11\/how-nh-counties-voted-based-economic-demos\/\">How NH Counties Voted (Based On Economic Drivers)<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/02\/13\/where-nh-residents-depend-on-government-benefits-the-most\/\">Where NH Residents Depend On Government Benefits The\u00a0Most<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"topics\"><h5>Topics<\/h5><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/136695278-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/topic\/nh-primary\/\">StateImpact\u2019s Essential Guide To The NH Primary<\/a><\/p><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2011\/10\/1058204843_32496fe28c-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/topic\/new-hampshire-economy\/\">Your Guide To New Hampshire\u2019s Economy<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>So things are better in swing states than the rest of the country?\u00a0 <em>Well&#8230;<\/em>Cooper reports it&#8217;s more of a &#8220;yes-and-no&#8221; situation.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;A recent <a title=\"link to Financial Times analysis of economic outlook\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/0\/0f071d06-8fa9-11e1-9ab1-00144feab49a.html#axzz1t9H42yev\">analysis<\/a> by The Financial Times found that job growth in swing states over the past year was slower than in the rest of the country, which could benefit Mr. Romney. Moody\u2019s Analytics, on the other hand, said that its forecasting model, which is based in part on assumptions about how the economy will perform in each state, predicts that Mr. Obama will be re-elected.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So against this backdrop, New Hampshire&#8217;s four electoral votes take on extra importance.\u00a0 But a <a title=\"OBAMA MAINTAINS LEAD OVER ROMNEY IN GRANITE STATE\" href=\"http:\/\/www.unh.edu\/survey-center\/news\/pdf\/gsp2012_spring_presapp042312.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">recent WMUR\/Granite State poll<\/a> on the subject is just as murky as the <em>Times <\/em>piece.\u00a0 <a title=\"UNH Survey Center\" href=\"http:\/\/www.unh.edu\/survey-center\/\" target=\"_blank\">UNH Survey Center <\/a>Director Andrew Smith writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;In spite of signs showing economic improvements, Granite Staters are sharply divided in their opinions of President Obama\u2019s handling of the economy. Currently, 47% of New Hampshire adults approve of how Obama is handling the economy, 50% disapprove, and 3% are neutral. As with other approval measures, there is a considerable partisan gap &#8211;most Democrats (84%) approve of Obama\u2019s handling of the economy, but only 36% of independents and 6% of Republicans approve.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>But economic pessimism in this particular swing state doesn&#8217;t seem to translate into a loss for Obama&#8211;so far, anyway:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_8190\"  class=\"wp-caption module image left\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"So far, poll results show economic pessimism hasn't bolstered Romney's chances in NH against Obama\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143824616.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8190\" title=\"Mitt Romney Campaigns In Pittsburgh\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143824616-300x232.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143824616-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/05\/143824616-620x480.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Justin K. Aller \/ Getty Images<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">So far, poll results show economic pessimism hasn&#39;t bolstered Romney&#39;s chances in NH against Obama<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;In a hypothetical race between President Barack Obama and Romney, 51% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Obama, 42% prefer Romney, 2% favor some other candidate, and 5% are undecided. Romney had led Obama for much of the past year before slipping behind in February in the wake of the New Hampshire primary.<\/p>\n<p>Obama holds a strong lead among Democrats (92%) while Romney\u2019s lead among Republicans is somewhat smaller (86%). Independents currently break to Obama by 40% to 35%. &#8216;The Republican nomination process has weakened Romney in his backyard,&#8217; said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. &#8216;He will have to consolidate support in New Hampshire and other battleground states if he hopes to defeat Obama in November.&#8217;\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At this point, politicos figure nine states could go to either Obama or Romney this November: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and&#8230;New Hampshire.\u00a0 All of them went for Barack Obama back in 2008.\u00a0 But New York Times reporter Michael Cooper notes that Republicans have also made some major strides in those states [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":8189,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[14],"tags":[185,501],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8188"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/28"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8189"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}