{"id":4783,"date":"2012-01-09T10:26:28","date_gmt":"2012-01-09T15:26:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/?p=4783"},"modified":"2012-01-08T19:27:08","modified_gmt":"2012-01-09T00:27:08","slug":"six-ways-new-hampshire-voters-think-about-jobs-and-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/01\/09\/six-ways-new-hampshire-voters-think-about-jobs-and-the-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Six Ways New Hampshire Voters Think About Jobs And The Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_4803\"  class=\"wp-caption module image left\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"Pollster Andy Smith helps StateImpact dig into NH voter psychology after the jump\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/Andy_Smith.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4803\" title=\"Andy Smith\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/Andy_Smith-300x199.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/Andy_Smith-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/Andy_Smith-620x411.jpg 620w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/Andy_Smith-220x146.jpg 220w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">University of New Hampshire<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pollster Andy Smith helps StateImpact dig into NH voter psychology after the jump<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Given the national atmosphere, it&#8217;s difficult to overestimate the importance of each presidential hopeful&#8217;s economic blueprints as the New Hampshire primary draws closer. (Our cheat sheet of the GOP candidates&#8217; positions on the economy <a title=\"The Ultimate NH Primary Cheat Sheet: Where The Candidates Stand on Economic Policy\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/01\/04\/the-ultimate-nh-primary-cheat-sheet\/\">is available here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p title=\"UNH Survey Center\">This year, longtime NH pollster Andy Smith, who directs the <a title=\"UNH Survey Center\" href=\"http:\/\/www.unh.edu\/survey-center\/\" target=\"_blank\">University of New Hampshire Survey Center,<\/a> says it&#8217;s far and away the economy that will determine candidates&#8217; vote counts.<\/p>\n<p>That may seem kind of obvious on the surface.\u00a0 But not once you start drilling down into the key questions \u2014 the <em>whys<\/em> and the <em>how<\/em>s<em>.<\/em>\u00a0 Why&#8217;s Mitt Romney doing so well in New Hampshire (besides the fact he&#8217;s got a summer home here)?\u00a0 And how, exactly, is the economy affecting voter perceptions and behavior?<\/p>\n<p>So after reviewing the UNH Survey Center&#8217;s <a title=\"THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE\" href=\"http:\/\/www.unh.edu\/survey-center\/news\/pdf\/primary2012_primary112311.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">recent WMUR Granite State poll<\/a>, we talked voter psychology with Smith.\u00a0 And that discussion yielded our list of six surprising things about New Hampshire voters and the economy:<!--more--><div class=\"related-content alignright\"><h4 class=\"related-header\">Related<\/h4><div class=\"links\"><h5>Posts<\/h5><ul><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/01\/04\/the-ultimate-nh-primary-cheat-sheet\/\">The Ultimate NH Primary Cheat Sheet: Where The Candidates Stand on Economic Policy<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/01\/05\/days-before-the-primary-restaurant-bans-politicians\/\">Days Before The Primary, Restaurant Bans Politicians<\/a><\/li><li class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2011\/12\/29\/five-essential-trends-that-shaped-nhs-economy-in-2011\/\">Five Essential Trends That Shaped NH\u2019s Economy In\u00a02011<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"topics\"><h5>Topics<\/h5><p class=\"topic\"><img class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2011\/10\/1058204843_32496fe28c-60x60.jpg\" height=\"60\" width=\"60\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/topic\/new-hampshire-economy\/\">Your Guide To New Hampshire\u2019s Economy<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n<ol>\n<ol>\n<ol>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>NH voters are still most concerned about jobs and the economy despite the state&#8217;s relatively good economic position.\u00a0 <\/strong>More than 60 percent of voters polled by WMUR say the economy and jobs is the most important issue for them in the primary. &#8220;This is despite the fact that <a title=\"Your Guide To New Hampshire's Economy\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/tag\/newhampshireeconomy\/\" target=\"_blank\">New Hampshire is actually doing quite well<\/a> in this economic downturn, compared with other parts of the country,&#8221; Smith said. Recently released figures from November show that while the national unemployment rate was 8.6 percent, the Granite State&#8217;s jobless rate was only 5.2 percent.\u00a0 New Hampshire also has the <a title=\"Census: N.H. has lowest poverty rate\" href=\"http:\/\/www.concordmonitor.com\/article\/279749\/census-nh-has-lowest-poverty-rate?page=full\" target=\"_blank\">lowest poverty rate in the country<\/a>, and <a title=\"Is New Hampshire a Rich State?\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2011\/09\/23\/is-new-hampshire-a-rich-state\/\" target=\"_blank\">one of the highest median household incomes<\/a>. \u00a0But Smith said during presidential elections, New Hampshire voters tend to put their state-centric views aside, and vote based on the big picture.<\/li>\n<li><strong><strong><strong><strong>Even if the national economy improved, NH voters would STILL say <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><strong><strong>the<\/strong><\/strong><strong> economy was the top issue.\u00a0 <\/strong>\n<div id=\"attachment_4807\"  class=\"wp-caption module image right\" style=\"max-width: 150px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"Voters tend to remain skittish about the economy, even after recovery's started.\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/2901319474_2e476c6a89.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-4807\" title=\"It's The Economy, Stupid\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/2901319474_2e476c6a89-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/2901319474_2e476c6a89-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/2901319474_2e476c6a89-140x140.jpg 140w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/2901319474_2e476c6a89-60x60.jpg 60w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/2901319474_2e476c6a89-100x100.jpg 100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">MyEyeSees \/ Flickr<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Voters tend to remain skittish about the economy, even after recovery&#39;s started.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Consumer confidence is an incredibly important factor in <strong><\/strong>elections, especially when the economy&#8217;s been down.\u00a0 But, as Smith explained, &#8220;Consumer confidence tends to be a lagging indicator&#8230;as we go out of recession.\u00a0 Because folks aren&#8217;t really sure that we&#8217;re actually out of the woods yet.\u00a0 So they want to hold back on making new purchases or thinking that they can afford a vacation or a new car or something like that until they&#8217;re really convinced that the economy has recovered.&#8221;\u00a0 In other words, even if the economy recovered, people would still behave&#8211;and vote&#8211;like we were in a recession.\u00a0 &#8220;One of the most famous political slogans that we&#8217;ve heard in recent years was the &#8216;It&#8217;s the economy, stupid&#8217; line that the Clinton campaign used against George H.W. Bush back in the 1992 election,&#8221; Smith said.\u00a0 &#8220;But by the time the election came around in November of 1992, the economy actually was in pretty good shape.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>To most voters, jobs and the economy are the same issue.\u00a0 Taxes and the deficit are separate matters.\u00a0 <\/strong>Given New Hampshire&#8217;s anti-tax leanings, we found this particularly interesting.\u00a0 Remember that more than 60 percent of voters polled by the UNH Survey Center cited &#8220;the economy and jobs&#8221; as their top issue?\u00a0 This is how Smith explained coming up with that figure.\u00a0 &#8220;We asked that as open-ended questions, &#8216;What&#8217;s the most important problem, most important issue for you in the campaign?&#8217;\u00a0 And the kind of responses you get are, &#8216;Well, the state of the economy and there&#8217;s not enough jobs.&#8217;&#8230;That&#8217;s what people will tell us verbatim.\u00a0 So the economy and jobs are so intertwined in the minds of voters that there&#8217;s really no way you can separate those two things.&#8221;\u00a0 Meanwhile, only about 10 percent of New Hampshire voters told pollsters the budget deficit was their major concern, and three percent mentioned taxes.\u00a0 (You can see a chart of voters&#8217; concerns at the bottom of this post.)<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><strong><strong>But to the Republican slate of candidates, jobs, the economy, taxes and the<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><strong><strong> deficit<\/strong><\/strong><strong> are all the same issue.\u00a0 <\/strong>For the six remaining Republican candidates, tax cuts, spending cuts, and the deficit play major roles in their economic recovery plans.\u00a0 A commenter on <a title=\"The Ultimate NH Primary Cheat Sheet: Where The Candidates Stand on Economic Policy\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2012\/01\/04\/the-ultimate-nh-primary-cheat-sheet\/\" target=\"_blank\">our previous post<\/a> looking at these recovery blueprints wrote: &#8220;What about plans to grow the economy ( I see only spending cuts)?&#8221;\u00a0 So we asked Smith.\u00a0 &#8220;It gets very lost, particularly among the Republicans, who are largely making the argument that the problem that we have with the economy is that the government is trying to do too much about [the economy],&#8221; Smith explained.\u00a0 &#8220;Their argument is basically, leave things alone, the economy will get better on its own.\u00a0 So coming up with a five point plan to do something about the economy is probably not the kind of thing that a lot of Republicans are going to want you to listen to.&#8221;\u00a0 Thus we see a merging of taxes, the deficit, jobs, and the economy in Republican economic recovery plans.\u00a0 &#8220;Part of the problem is that it&#8217;s very difficult to explain to voters what your economic plan is, and how it is different either from the president&#8217;s economic plan, or the economic plans of your Republican rivals,&#8221;\u00a0 Smith said.\u00a0 So if all the candidates agree they need to give the economy room to heal itself, they need to differentiate themselves based on which taxes and programs they&#8217;ll cut to create that space.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mitt&#8217;s moderate economic message resonates in part because old school rural Yankee Republicans are a dying breed.\u00a0 <\/strong>The flannel-clad old fashioned New Hampshire conservative is a staple of primary coverage.\u00a0 Recently, UNH political scientist Dante Scala <a title=\"Changes in New Hampshire\u2019s Republican Party Evolving Footprint in Presidential Politics, 1960-2008\" href=\"http:\/\/www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu\/publications\/IB-Scala-NH-Republican-Party.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">charted the changes in the state&#8217;s Republican party over the past 50 years<\/a>.\u00a0 He found that slowly, the influence of these rural northern Republicans has waned, while southern New Hampshire&#8217;s voting power has increased.\u00a0 Scala wrote that over that time, the state &#8220;has moved from reliably Republican to Democratic-tilting bellwether.&#8221;\u00a0 And that, pollster Andy Smith says, is good news for Mitt Romney.\u00a0 &#8220;The reason the state has changed its leanings is largely because those old Republicans died or moved to Florida.\u00a0 And the people that moved in afterwards are far more likely to be Democrats,&#8221; Smith said.\u00a0 &#8220;And the new voters in the state are, I think, much more in-tune with a guy like Romney than maybe some voters 30, 40 years ago&#8230;largely because New Hampshire is essentially a suburb of Greater Boston.\u00a0 Most of the voters live in the southeastern corner of the state, and those kind of voters certainly know who Mitt Romney is, and perhaps share his political philosophies to a greater degree.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>\n<div id=\"attachment_4823\"  class=\"wp-caption module image right\" style=\"max-width: 150px;\"><a class=\"fancybox\" title=\"Very few &quot;independent&quot; votes are actually up for grabs\" href=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/480629716_f8a62cbc77.jpg\" rel=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-4823\" title=\"480629716_f8a62cbc77\" src=\"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/480629716_f8a62cbc77-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/480629716_f8a62cbc77-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/480629716_f8a62cbc77-140x140.jpg 140w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/480629716_f8a62cbc77-60x60.jpg 60w, https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/files\/2012\/01\/480629716_f8a62cbc77-100x100.jpg 100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Keith Ivey \/ Flickr<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Very few &quot;independent&quot; votes are actually up for grabs<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>Most of NH&#8217;s &#8220;Independent&#8221; voters aren&#8217;t that independent at all.\u00a0 <\/strong>Given the flavor\u00a0of national political coverage over the years regarding the much-vaunted New Hampshire independent voter, we found this little tidbit the most surprising.\u00a0 &#8220;[What] we&#8217;re seeing in our polling, and this mirrors what we&#8217;ve seen historically, somewhere in the 60-62 percent [range] of the Republican primary electorate will be registered Republicans,&#8221; Smith said.\u00a0 &#8220;Another 20 percent will be people who are registered undeclared, but for all intents and purposes are Republicans&#8230;So that leaves only about 20 percent left.\u00a0 And of that last 20 percent, about half of it will actually be Democrats who are registered undeclared but are going to vote in the Republican primary, and the other 10 percent being true independents who are going to vote in the Republican primary.&#8221;\u00a0 In other words most independents are spoken for.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/ol>\n<\/ol>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Bonus Note:<\/strong> As for why Republicans and Democrats register &#8220;Undeclared&#8221; in the first place?\u00a0 Smith noted that obscuring personal politics could be beneficial for some jobs, and it allows voters to dodge those annoying political calls.\u00a0 And, perhaps most importantly, only independents are allowed to vote in both Republican and Democratic primaries.\u00a0 &#8220;You can still go out and vote on election day, give you something to do,&#8221; Smith said. &#8220;This year&#8230;it&#8217;s going to be tens of thousands of people who really aren&#8217;t Republicans, but they&#8217;re going to vote in the Republican primary, because that&#8217;s what you do on primary day in New Hampshire: You go out and vote!&#8221;<\/p>\n<h4>NH Voters&#8217; Major Concerns<\/h4>\n<table>\n<thead><\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Jobs\/Economy<\/td>\n<td>63.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Other<\/td>\n<td>11.40%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Budget Deficit<\/td>\n<td>10.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Health Care<\/td>\n<td>4.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Immigration<\/td>\n<td>4.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Natl. Security\/Foreign Policy<\/td>\n<td>3.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Taxes<\/td>\n<td>3.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Abortion<\/td>\n<td>2.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Religious Issues<\/td>\n<td>0.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Gun Rights<\/td>\n<td>0.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p class=\"source\">University of New Hampshire Survey Center<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Given the national atmosphere, it&#8217;s difficult to overestimate the importance of each presidential hopeful&#8217;s economic blueprints as the New Hampshire primary draws closer. (Our cheat sheet of the GOP candidates&#8217; positions on the economy is available here.) This year, longtime NH pollster Andy Smith, who directs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, says it&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":4803,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[14],"tags":[185,227,501],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4783"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/28"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4783"}],"version-history":[{"count":74,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4921,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4783\/revisions\/4921"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4803"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}