{"id":4601,"date":"2011-12-29T16:27:44","date_gmt":"2011-12-29T21:27:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/?p=4601"},"modified":"2011-12-29T16:27:44","modified_gmt":"2011-12-29T21:27:44","slug":"five-essential-trends-that-shaped-nhs-economy-in-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/2011\/12\/29\/five-essential-trends-that-shaped-nhs-economy-in-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"Five Essential Trends That Shaped NH’s Economy In 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Chintermeyer<\/p>

Here's our roundup of five big trends that shaped NH's economy in 2011<\/p><\/div>\n

With Christmas and Hanukkah\u00a0 wrapped-up, we’ve officially reached the pre-New Year’s lull.\u00a0 This brief respite from the regularly scheduled holiday cheer is when many people take the opportunity to consider their accomplishments and failures over the past year, and resolve to do better in the future.\u00a0 Other people just go to work for a few days and get really, really bored at their desks as they countdown to their next party.<\/p>\n

Either way, it’s a bit of a restless period, isn’t it?<\/p>\n

So here at StateImpact, we’ve decided to combat this inter-holiday malaise with a list.\u00a0 We’ve been watching a lot of economic forecast presentations lately, and reading a lot of white papers.\u00a0 So we took that information, along with some of our previous coverage, tossed it into the metaphorical pot, and boiled it down into a quick list of five essential trends that shaped the Granite State’s economy over the past year.\u00a0 While it’s certainly not exhaustive, it provides some food for thought looking toward 2012.<\/p>\n

And, as always, whether you think we’re absolutely right, dead wrong, or just have a question, we invite you to come on over and crash our comments thread.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The Incredible Shrinking Government: <\/strong>This is the event that spawned numerous trends in New Hampshire (including #2 on this list).\u00a0 Deputy Legislative Budget Assistant Mike Kane told StateImpact that early last session, the state estimated it could face a budget shortfall up to\n
  2. A Slimmer Health Care Sector: <\/strong>Disproportionate Share Hospital fund payments, or DSH, is an incredibly complicated issue that’s had a big effect on the state’s economy.\u00a0 (You can find a great summary of DSH here<\/a>.)\u00a0 But basically, under the old system, the state levied whatamounted to a fake tax on hospitals.\u00a0 The state would send money to hospitals.\u00a0 Hospitals would then turn around the same day and send that exact amount of money back<\/em> to the state as a “tax” payment.\u00a0 The state would then tell the feds how much money it had given to the hospitals–supposedly to care for low-income people.\u00a0 And the feds would match half that “contribution” with Medicaid funds.\u00a0 The state took that money and stashed it in the general fund.\u00a0 No harm, no foul, as far as hospitals were concerned.\u00a0 This year, however, that tax became real<\/em>.\u00a0 The Legislature wanted the money to help fill-in budget gaps.\u00a0 Hospitals responded with a wave of early retirements and layoffs.\u00a0 As of last month, the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies reported 1,043 health care workers had been laid off, retired early, or simply not replaced. Ten of the largest hospitals are suing the state in federal court<\/a>.\u00a0 And health care–for the moment, at least–is no longer a reliable job growth sector.<\/li>\n
  3. Banks Bet On Small Businesses:<\/strong> This was the 2011 trend that surprised us the most, given continued national coverage of the tight credit situation.\u00a0 Prior to November’s New England Economic Partnership<\/a> fall forecast conference, economist Dennis Delay wrote in his preview report, that the state’s banks “lent more than $150 million to small businesses…using US Small Business Administration<\/a> loan guarantees” between September 2010 and September 2011.\u00a0 That represents a 33 percent jump over lending levels for the previous year.\u00a0 These are the highest SBA lending levels since FY 2006–prior to the recession.<\/li>\n
  4. The Ongoing Problem Of Foreclosure: <\/strong>While the proportion of home foreclosures in New Hampshire is lower than the US average–2.5 percent compared to about 4.5 percent\n
  5. An Inhospitable Housing Market:\u00a0 <\/strong>On the flip-side, Economist Russ Thibeault also told the Joint Economic Session<\/a> that between 2003 home price levels and interest rates, buying a house has never been more affordable.\u00a0 But with many banks demanding a 20 percent down payment, that puts a $200 thousand home out of reach for most families.\u00a0 This lack of demand (and the uptick in foreclosures) has created an inventory of 15,000 to 16,000 unsold houses. \u00a0 That’s about 15 months’ worth of inventory.\u00a0 And that large supply, paired with low demand, kept housing prices relatively flat.\u00a0 Meanwhile, developers have been skittish about adding to existing housing stock.\u00a0 This year marked the lowest level of housing construction on record (which began in 1969).\u00a0 Thibeault counted building permits and found that for the whole of 2011, New Hampshire’s new home construction is roughly the same as one month’s worth of building in the early 1970’s.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    With Christmas and Hanukkah\u00a0 wrapped-up, we’ve officially reached the pre-New Year’s lull.\u00a0 This brief respite from the regularly scheduled holiday cheer is when many people take the opportunity to consider their accomplishments and failures over the past year, and resolve to do better in the future.\u00a0 Other people just go to work for a few […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":4611,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[14],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4601"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/28"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4601"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4601\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4622,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4601\/revisions\/4622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateimpact.npr.org\/new-hampshire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}